LEXINGTON, Va., April 4, 2022 — Is it possible to know which country will start the next war? Leon M. Thomas ’22, son of Nukhet Viteri and Robert Thomas, and the grandson of Barbara Thomas, all of Newport News, posed this question as the basis of his senior thesis at Virginia Military Institute: “Democracies and Autocracies: Structural Factors that Determine Military Interventions” and presented his findings during honors week, held March 21-31.

Thomas, who is a civil and environmental engineering major, was introduced by his project advisor, Lt. Col. Patrick J. Rhamey Jr., who stated that Thomas was the only non-international studies major who did an international studies thesis. He also said that Thomas’ thesis was “one of the more impressive honors theses” that he has had the opportunity to advise.

Interest in the research question stems from his personal observation of an increase in war and authoritarian insurgence in the world during his lifetime. He stated that this increase was occurring before the recent Russian invasion of Ukraine, “which experts say is the largest military in Europe since World War II.”

Thomas underscored his visualization by sharing that he had traveled with other cadets to Serbia/Bosnia-Herzegovina on a cultural immersion trip recently, and while there, conversed with citizens of the region who felt a greater threat of war than they had for over thirty years.

By researching existing literature in the topic including writings by Immanuel Kant, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, David Leblang and Steve Chan, Thomas proposed three hypotheses:

1. If a country has elections giving power to the voters whose approval is required for a leader to maintain power, then that country will be less likely to start a conflict.
2. If a country is a military regime, then that country will be more likely to start a conflict.
3. If a regime has existed for a shorter amount of time, then they are more likely to start a conflict.

Thomas put his three hypotheses to six different tests and came to the following conclusions:

Regarding the first hypothesis, only democracies supported this trend, authoritarian regimes did not. Regarding the second hypothesis, the trend was rejected, there was almost no association between military regimes and initiation of conflict. Thomas believes a possible cause for this is that a military regime’s goal is to preserve its powers, and war can deplete resources and cause conflict. Regarding the third hypothesis, only democracies supported this trend as they tend to grow more stable with time, in contrast with authoritarian regimes which tend to lose stability with time.

Thomas will graduate in May. After graduation, he plans to work as a water and wastewater engineer at JMT and to commission into the U.S. Air Force.

Marianne Hause
Communications & Marketing
VIRGINIA MILITARY INSTITUTE